Export sales data released yesterday continued to show us the same thing we have seen all year long. I thought I would review the numbers with you.

Corn sales year to date are 1.012 billion bushel compared to 847 last year but only 13 million were sold this week. Wheat sales were only 7 million bushel and are now 596 compared to 805 million last year. Soybean sales remain strong with China buying again. Sales year to date for soybeans are at 1.211 billion bushel compared to 817 last year. It is truly amazing to watch these soybean sales each week. When will they switch to S America or will they?

The regular funds are still long over 150,000 contracts of corn and most now are not very profitable if at all. Some are beginning to wonder if they have the fortitude to stay with all that length or heaven help us, they may get rid of some. If for some reason the regular fund would want to go short and the index fund would even pare down some, we would quickly go to the lows. Don’t think that will happen but want you to be aware.

The funds are also long soybeans but not to the magnitude that they are in corn. Again, the same scenario can unfold in soybeans that there is in corn. Be careful here.

The only place there isn’t a big long in regular funds is in wheat and have you noticed it has performed the best since the report. But the fundamentals will doom it also. It’s just a matter of time.

Acres guesses keep going up each and every day with the large amount of acres leaving wheat. Cotton, corn and soybeans appear to be the big gainer. Wheat’s only chance to hold onto acres is in Hard Red Spring regions. Will wheat go in behind that corn still standing in the field or are those acres doomed for soybeans. Doubt if they see corn again for a while.

My belief is that the markets do not perform too well in the coming weeks. What is going to support them? The bear is in control and he wants to shove this market down the throat of those index funds. This is the first time in a while he may get the job done. Bears with a Cheshire cat grin. Picture that.

I think the commodity markets in general, from metals to energies to Ag commodities to the softs are in for a bumpy ride this year. This is why you need to work with someone who is used to using puts or selling strategies with protection. If you only listen to the bull this year, especially the first half of the year, I think you are going to leave a lot of money on the table. Give us a call.